The Business of Power In The Middle East: Iran, Iraq and Israel

On June 13, as the citizens in Jerusalem were ending their day, a volley of ballistic missiles—seemingly 100s— crashed down on to the city. Air‑raid sirens shattered the night’s silence in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Both cities’ citizens braced themselves, filming how their defence dome fired up in an attempt to intercept the rain of fire. 

Israel’s Iron Dome and the US Patriot batteries off the shore of the Jewish State intercepted a large number of Iran’s projectiles, many crashed into residential districts in Rishon LeZion and Ramat Gan, and killed at least eight and injured dozens. 

Iran had launched its missiles in retaliation to Israel’s firing on June 12, just the day before. Israel had targeted the Islamic republic’s uranium enrichment plant in Natanz and killed several senior Revolutionary Guard officers. Israel’s Prime Minister had then directly addressed the Iranian people, telling them to overthrow the current regime. 

Iran’s Nuclear Program

To understand the depth of these latest attacks, in 1979 after Iran’s Islamic Revolution, it had severed ties with the West. This set it on a collision course with Israel. Over the last few decades, the two states have indulged in a shadow war— with Iran cultivating a network of proxy militia like the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The idea, appears to be, to keep Israel on edge at all fronts while avoiding a direct conflict. This seems to have worked — the 2006 Lebanon War and Syrian skirmishes are attestations to it.  

At the heart of Israel’s discontent is Iran’s nuclear programme. Israel’s covert attack on June 12 comes within months of Tehran achieving 60 per cent uranium purity, bringing it one step away from being able to produce weapons grade uranium and completing its nuclear program. Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” was aimed to stop this advance.

Although Israel has never admitted it, the Jewish State’s nuclear capability is considered the world’s worst kept secret. As a result, the region is on fire— every analyst has warned of nuclear war. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Hezbollah launched rockets across the northern border of Israel, claiming solidarity with Iran, and Houthi vessels have gathered around the Red Sea threatening the Jewish State’s commercial shipping capabilities. Iraq’s militia factions also shelled U.S. and coalition bases. This leaves all eyes on the middle east region, which has once again become a multi‑front tinderbox awaiting a flashpoint before erupting into a full-scale war. 

Unusual Bedfellows United By Iran

In Israel, Iran’s assault has resulted in an unusual political alignment. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, a vociferous critic of Netanyahu, has publicly endorsed the state’s campaign, saying it’s important to act “in the face of existential peril, unity is our strongest armour.” 

Meanwhile, the United States is faced with its own catch-22 here. America is already defending American troops and interests across the Levant. While the Biden administration had urged restraint even as it deployed additional missile‑defence batteries to Jordan and the Persian Gulf, the Trump administration has flip-flopped, speaking out against Iran in one moment, trying to make deals with its regime the next. 

At its heart, the US is interested in avoiding a larger war that might draw in Russia, allied with Tehran, and cause untold upheaval to the oil-market, which would take a toll on the American and global economy. 

As dawn broke over the region on June 14, presidents and diplomats scrambled for a truce. However,  neither Iran nor Israel seem interested and have called any talks with Trump to be useless. 

So now, the world watches as the Middle East teeters on the brink once more.