The Lone Ranger Of Bihar Politics: Chirag’s Pressure Politics Or A Repeat Of 2020

Chirag Paswan, the president of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), has, so far, managed to do one thing in the run-up to the Bihar Assembly elections—adding to speculation. His declaration that his party would field candidates in all 243 seats has prompted ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to offer their understanding of his statement—that he would contest under the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold—while the Congress has predicted that he is all set to leave the ruling NDA post-elections, foreseeing a BJP defeat under Nitish Kumar’s leadership.

The speculation deepened recently when Chirag—who is also a Member of Parliament, Lok Sabha, from Hajipur constituency and Minister of Food Processing Industries—lashed at out at Nitish for the deteriorating condition of Bihar’s law and order, calling it “beyond understanding”. His comments are the latest in a series of messages directed at the Nitesh government since he decided to contest all alone. While one can see hoardings and posters across the state capital Patna, projecting Chirag as the next chief minister, as per a poll survey, he is the fifth popular candidate for the post.

So, by deciding to field candidates in all seats, is Chirag looking to strengthen his position by keeping allies and the Opposition guessing ahead of the state elections or is he playing a larger political game? Either way, Nitish’s JD(U) will be watching his moves closely as it affects the party’s political prospects. The backstory? Ahead of the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Chirag pulled out of the JD(U)-BJP alliance and declared that his party would contest solo. This turned out to be the single most important reason for the poor electoral performance of the JD(U). Though the LJP contested 135 seats on its own and managed to win only one, it damaged the prospects of the JD (U) candidates in nearly 28 seats, reducing the numerical strength of that party to 43 seats out of 115 seats it contested.

This time, is Chirag engaging in pressure politics to secure better seat-sharing, or is he preparing for another round of a fixed political match like last time?

Senior journalist Amarnath Tiwari, who has been following Bihar’s politics for over two decades, believes that Chirag’s role will remain the same as in 2020. He explains: “Both Chirag and Prashant (Kishor) are under the BJP’s control. The party wants them to dent the prospects of Nitish and Lalu. Chirag knows that he will not get seats in the NDA as per his wish. Therefore, he might decide to go solo in Bihar.”

Will this result in the JD(U)’s split from the NDA? Tiwari says the JD(U) cannot separate from the BJP because they will not get votes in the absence of an alliance. On the other hand, in the present situation, neither can Nitish counter the BJP nor does Chirag have the political weight to challenge them. But the fact that Chirag entered politics just 10 years ago and has declared that he will fight solo says a lot about the political ambitions of the forty-two-year-old, who once aspired to be a movie star. He made his debut in the 2008 movie Mile Na Mile Hum, which co-starred Kangana Ranaut. The film flopped at the box office. He campaigned for his party for the first time in 2010.

Chirag inherited his political legacy from his father, Ram Vilas Paswan—one of the prominent Dalit leaders of the country, who joined forces with the BJP in 2014 despite once being their biggest adversary, to help establish his son in national politics. But after the passing of Paswan in 2020, his family and the LJP became fragmented. Chirag found himself isolated. Paswan’s youngest brother—Pashupati Kumar Paras—was elected as the national president of the LJP in June 2021, replacing Chirag. In October 2021, the LJP was fractured into two parts and Paras formed the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP). After the split, Paras took five of its six MPs with him, asserting his control over the party. Despite this, Chirag did not give up.

Four years later, the BJP, which had abandoned him in 2020, now prefers to ally with Chirag rather than with his uncle Paras. Senior journalist Vikas Kumar sees Chirag’s current political activities as part of his struggle to negotiate for a better seat share. “His claim to contest all 243 seats is nothing but pressure politics,” he says.

According to sources, the JD(U) is pressurising the BJP to allot the minimum number of seats to Chirag’s party. The old seat-sharing formula may be applied—100 seats to the JD(U), 100 to the BJP and the remaining 43 to the LJP and parties launched by Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha. If this happens, it’s clear that Chirag will only get a limited number of seats.

In such a scenario, will Chirag, as in the 2020 elections, fight outside the alliance? And if that happens, will the JD(U) again suffer a heavy loss? In the last elections, Chirag contested against all 115 JD(U) candidates. As a result, Nitish’s JD(U) won only 43 seats, and for the first time, the BJP became the largest party in Bihar in terms of seats (74), with the JD(U) slipping to third place. In the end, LJP caused severe damage to the JD(U) by splitting their votes.

What is Chirag’s plan? The LJP(R) fielded five MPs in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and all five won, but is Chirag more interested in Bihar politics than national politics now? He claimed so in one of the interviews. A few days ago, Arun Bharti, the Bihar in-charge of LJP(R), also said that Chirag should play a bigger role in Bihar. Party workers believe that he should contest from a general seat in Shahabad, rather than a reserved seat.

The strategy behind Chirag’s potential candidacy from Shahabad is twofold—one, the BJP and the JD(U) are weak in the region, so Chirag wants to maximise his seat share, and two, there is a substantial number of Paswan voters in the region. “He can win from any seat, but since the NDA is weak in this region, we want him to contest from here,” says Rajeshwar Paswan, the party’s Bhojpur district president.

What does Chirag’s potential candidacy in Bihar mean? Is a new political equation being set? Bihar’s leadership has been dominated by Other Backward Classes (OBCs) for over three decades, and a shift toward Dalit leadership is being speculated. Bihar’s 63 per cent OBC population and 19 per cent Dalit population could be the gamechangers.

Is the BJP viewing Chirag as a viable option? Tiwari dismisses this possibility. “If the BJP gains by using Chirag, they will not make him the chief minister and push for their candidate,” he says.

Talking about numbers, the party’s vote share has decreased. In the past, Ram Vilas Paswan managed to secure seats despite a declining vote share, but Chirag hasn’t been able to replicate that. Commenting on the shrinking political ground of the party, Kumar says: “Chirag’s only real win is that he defeated his uncle and once again became Narendra Modi’s ‘Hanuman’.”

(Translated by Kaveri Mishra)

Md Asghar Khan is senior correspondent from Jharkhand

In Jungle Raj, 해외카지노’s August 1 issue, we explored why the Bihar elections matter so much. Our reporters delved into the state’s caste equations, governance records, electoral controversies and national ambitions, along with taking a hard look at the law and order situation— all of which make the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections one of the most consequential state polls of this electoral cycle. This article appeared as 'The Lone Ranger'.